What’s on the Actuarial Risk Assessment poster
A definition and 5 facts worth remembering.
Structured tools estimate the probability of an outcome for a group, then apply it to an individual.
- Group probabilities applied to one person
- Better than unaided judgement on average
- Accuracy is moderate, not high
- Rare outcomes generate many false positives
- Fairness criteria cannot all hold at once
- Base rate problem — Rare events are hard to predict
- Fairness result — Some fairness measures are incompatible
- A tool can be calibrated across groups and still differ in error rates.
Educational reference. Tools are decision aids; they inform decisions rather than making them, and their limits should be stated.
Questions about the Actuarial Risk Assessment poster
- What’s on the Actuarial Risk Assessment poster?
- A definition and 5 facts worth remembering. Structured tools estimate the probability of an outcome for a group, then apply it to an individual. Group probabilities applied to one person; Better than unaided judgement on average; Accuracy is moderate, not high; Rare outcomes generate many false positives; Fairness criteria cannot all hold at once; Base rate problem — Rare events are hard to predict; Fairness result — Some fairness measures are incompatible; A tool can be calibrated across groups and still differ in error rates.. Educational reference. Tools are decision aids; they inform decisions rather than making them, and their limits should be stated.
- Who is the Actuarial Risk Assessment poster for?
- Actuarial Risk Assessment belongs to the Criminal Justice section rather than to a school year, because law & society is not something one grade owns. Anyone learning policy & evidence can pin it up — a beginner, a student mid-course, or someone revising years later.
- When should you use the Actuarial Risk Assessment poster?
- Use it when a tool's output is being treated as a decision rather than an input. A wall chart earns its place by being glanceable from where the work is happening, so Actuarial Risk Assessment belongs on the wall where that law & society work actually happens, within glancing distance, rather than filed away.
- What other posters go with Actuarial Risk Assessment?
- Cost-Benefit in Justice Policy, Certainty Beats Severity and Measuring Disproportionality sit alongside Actuarial Risk Assessment in the Criminal Justice section. Printed together they make a wall rather than a single sheet, which is how a reference set actually gets used.Cost-Benefit in Justice PolicyCertainty Beats SeverityMeasuring Disproportionality
- Is the Actuarial Risk Assessment poster free to download and print?
- Yes. Actuarial Risk Assessment downloads as a free PDF with no account, no email and no watermark, like everything else in the Criminal Justice section. Print as many copies as you like for a home, a classroom, a library or a tutoring group; reselling the file is the only thing the licence rules out.Read the licence
- What size does the Actuarial Risk Assessment poster print at?
- Actuarial Risk Assessment is a vector PDF laid out for US Letter, and prints on A4 with Fit to page — the same file, no separate download. Because every mark on it is drawn rather than photographed, it stays sharp enlarged to A3, A2 or A1 at a copy shop. Colour carries emphasis only, so a greyscale print of Actuarial Risk Assessment loses nothing.Printing guide
Related posters
Charts that sit alongside Actuarial Risk Assessment on the same wall.
Cost-Benefit in Justice Policy
Criminal Justice
Certainty Beats Severity
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Measuring Disproportionality
Criminal Justice
Drug Policy and Evidence
Criminal Justice
Early Intervention
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Evidence Standards
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Implementation and Fidelity
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Net-Widening
Criminal Justice
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